November Updates - FED Stopped?

In early November, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) put a halt to its series of interest rate increases, indicating to the public that their phase of rate hikes might be concluding. However, our model of the federal funds rate suggests that a reduction in rates is unlikely until the third quarter of next year, and there's even a possibility of further hikes in the first quarter of 2024. Since the beginning of November, the Money Market Risk Index has shown a substantial decrease in risk, presenting short-term opportunities to increase investments in equity markets. Over the longer term, however, earnings growth, which is closely tied to GDP growth, is expected to revert to pre-pandemic levels. This reversion is likely to exert significant downward pressure on global equity markets.